tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OO 4765 at 11:34 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 4765 SkyWest DEN 11:34 SHV 15:02 19% 9% 0.6% no record
OO 376 SkyWest DEN 17:53 SHV 21:21 39% 15% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Shreveport on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Shreveport is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:28 → SHV 15:41UA 5765 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 19:05 → SHV 19:52DL 3505 · flown by SkyWest 8h 00m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SHV 22:04DL 4095 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → SHV 22:44AA 4902 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:08 → SHV 20:17AA 6245 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 96% 67%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:19 → SHV 18:28AA 6410 · flown by SkyWest 6h 50m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 1h 01m Houston IAH 16:10 → SHV 17:21UA 6026 · flown by SkyWest 4h 47m 81% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 53m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SHV 22:04DL 4095 · flown by SkyWest 5h 54m 66% 52%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:08 → SHV 20:17AA 6245 · flown by SkyWest 4h 06m 42% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON