Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1706 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 1706 DEN 08:23 → SJC 10:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3489 DEN 21:00 → SJC 22:46 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1706 Southwest	DEN 08:23	SJC 10:02	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1256 United	DEN 11:21	SJC 13:08	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4387 Southwest	DEN 11:40	SJC 13:19	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1883 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SJC 17:35	35%	20%	0.6%	72%
UA 2745 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	SJC 21:09	44%	20%	0.7%	76%worse than usual
WN 1386 Southwest	DEN 16:30	SJC 18:10	45%	14%	0.7%	no record
WN 3489 Southwest	DEN 21:00	SJC 22:46	48%	15%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON