tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Bush, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Juan on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1339 United Flight history → DEN 09:43 SJU 17:38 18% 4% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Juan is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:47UA 1924 2h 47m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 10h 29m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 3h 48m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 10h 56m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:08 → EWR 05:40UA 1745 2h 20m Newark EWR 08:00 → SJU 12:04UA 2143 9h 56m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 54m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 9h 37m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 1h 31m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 8h 42m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:23 → SJU 15:18AA 702 8h 18m 96% 67%
FrontierDetails → DEN 11:20 → TPA 16:59F9 2748 3h 45m Tampa TPA 20:44 → SJU 00:01 +1F9 3980 10h 41m 97% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 12:40 → EWR 18:35UA 1283 1h 10m Newark EWR 19:45 → SJU 23:50UA 1543 9h 10m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON