Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2544 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–53%.

Safest bet that day DL 2544 DEN 05:40 → SLC 07:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2769 DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 2063 Southwest	DEN 08:35	SLC 10:09	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 07:49	SLC 09:24	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:56	SLC 10:35	13%	5%	0.7%	83%
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:45	SLC 12:14	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	23%	8%	0.6%	80%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	25%	5%	0.6%	84%
WN 3502 Southwest	DEN 11:46	SLC 13:20	25%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2371 Southwest	DEN 13:34	SLC 15:08	31%	5%	0.7%	no record
F9 3861 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:38	SLC 15:17	33%	10%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	33%	9%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	36%	15%	1.3%	80%worse than usual
OO 5741 SkyWest	DEN 15:49	SLC 17:23	36%	15%	0.9%	no record
OO 4787 SkyWest	DEN 16:39	SLC 18:32	37%	18%	2.1%	no record
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	39%	14%	1.4%	71%worse than usual
OO 449 SkyWest	DEN 17:56	SLC 19:32	42%	15%	1.9%	no record
WN 1785 Southwest	DEN 16:00	SLC 17:34	43%	13%	1.6%	no record
WN 4270 Southwest	DEN 20:59	SLC 22:33	50%	15%	1.0%	no record
WN 290 Southwest	DEN 17:26	SLC 19:01	50%	13%	1.7%	no record
DL 8944 Delta	DEN 21:19	SLC 22:49	50%	16%	0.9%	no record
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:01	SLC 19:33	50%	13%	1.4%	84%worse than usual
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	53%	15%	1.1%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON