Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1787 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–56%.

Safest bet that day WN 1787 DEN 08:30 → SMF 10:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1790 DEN 18:25 → SMF 20:04 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1787 Southwest	DEN 08:30	SMF 10:08	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2149 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SMF 09:35	9%	3%	0.5%	94%
WN 1788 Southwest	DEN 10:05	SMF 11:43	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3665 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 08:56	SMF 10:42	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 2673 United	DEN 11:52	SMF 13:36	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 662 United Flight history →	DEN 13:35	SMF 15:10	29%	8%	0.6%	83%worse than usual
UA 1208 United Flight history →	DEN 16:03	SMF 17:41	39%	15%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
UA 1602 United Flight history →	DEN 21:07	SMF 22:43	46%	14%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
UA 2132 United Flight history →	DEN 19:37	SMF 21:12	46%	15%	0.6%	74%worse than usual
WN 4393 Southwest	DEN 16:13	SMF 17:45	48%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 2098 Southwest	DEN 21:03	SMF 22:41	53%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1790 Southwest	DEN 18:25	SMF 20:04	56%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON