Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3124 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 3124 DEN 08:30 → SNA 09:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3728 DEN 17:55 → SNA 19:21 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3124 Southwest	DEN 08:30	SNA 09:55	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 2666 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SNA 09:07	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
F9 4371 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:00	SNA 10:28	18%	5%	0.7%	89%
UA 1320 United Flight history →	DEN 11:20	SNA 12:51	20%	7%	0.6%	88%
UA 1707 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SNA 14:56	23%	7%	0.6%	86%
WN 580 Southwest	DEN 11:31	SNA 12:57	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	DEN 20:32	SNA 22:01	32%	7%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
UA 1704 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	SNA 20:40	35%	12%	0.7%	75%
WN 2897 Southwest	DEN 15:05	SNA 16:31	36%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2653 Southwest	DEN 20:30	SNA 21:57	37%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1497 United	DEN 16:09	SNA 17:32	37%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 3728 Southwest	DEN 17:55	SNA 19:21	42%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON