Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4346 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 4346 DEN 06:14 → STL 09:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1305 DEN 19:10 → STL 22:18 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4346 Southwest	DEN 06:14	STL 09:25	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2129 Southwest	DEN 07:25	STL 10:36	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2364 Southwest	DEN 09:20	STL 12:29	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 4400 Southwest	DEN 12:54	STL 16:03	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	27%	7%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
WN 2664 Southwest	DEN 14:55	STL 18:04	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 4733 SkyWest	DEN 20:29	STL 23:44	40%	14%	0.9%	no record
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	41%	14%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
WN 1738 Southwest	DEN 16:10	STL 19:20	47%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 1305 Southwest	DEN 19:10	STL 22:18	52%	13%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON