Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OO 717 at 12:02 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 717 SkyWest	DEN 12:02	SUN 14:00	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 5734 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SUN 21:26	32%	11%	0.8%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 11:37 → SUN 15:02UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	100%	82%
United Details →	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	1h 25m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	82%	63%
Alaska Details →	DEN 11:59 → SEA 13:51AS 682	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	7h 02m	97%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DEN 18:01 → SLC 19:33DL 1623	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 06m	70%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON