tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 211 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 211 United DEN 09:52 SYR 15:15 16% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 2350 United Flight history → DEN 18:10 SYR 23:44 46% 16% 0.8% 76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 00:05 → IAD 05:47UA 1924 2h 42m Dulles IAD 08:29 → SYR 09:55UA 4370 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 50m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 12:19 → SYR 14:29DL 2991 6h 44m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336 2h 07m New York JFK 14:34 → SYR 16:11DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor 7h 36m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41UA 1279 54m Dulles IAD 12:35 → SYR 14:04UA 4499 · flown by GoJet 5h 51m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 8h 44m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 3h 59m Dulles IAD 17:25 → SYR 19:04UA 4977 · flown by CommuteAir 9h 04m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → DEN 13:13 → PHL 19:10AA 2491 3h 10m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → SYR 23:45AA 6103 · flown by Piedmont 8h 32m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 3h 03m Dulles IAD 22:25 → SYR 23:59UA 4856 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 06m 95% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DEN 14:18 → CLT 19:29AA 1662 1h 31m Charlotte CLT 21:00 → SYR 23:04AA 1236 6h 46m 74% 52%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617 1h 04m Chicago ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481 5h 44m 63% 34%
AmericanDetails → DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:25 → SYR 23:40AA 421 6h 29m 63% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON