Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1807 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 1807 DEN 05:36 → TPA 11:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2746 DEN 18:57 → TPA 00:34 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1807 Southwest	DEN 05:36	TPA 11:05	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	15%	4%	0.7%	89%
WN 1808 Southwest	DEN 10:35	TPA 16:05	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	TPA 19:33	23%	8%	0.7%	86%
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:20	TPA 16:59	28%	8%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	TPA 23:17	41%	14%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
WN 1810 Southwest	DEN 19:00	TPA 00:26	44%	13%	0.8%	no record
F9 2746 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:57	TPA 00:34	47%	17%	1.5%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON