Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5315 at 10:04 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–45%.

Safest bet that day UA 5315 DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 2758 DEN 19:35 → TUL 22:19 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:04	TUL 12:59	14%	5%	0.6%	88%
WN 1903 Southwest	DEN 10:25	TUL 13:10	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	TUL 16:29	22%	8%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
OO 568 SkyWest	DEN 15:33	TUL 18:30	28%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	TUL 23:47	32%	11%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
WN 1813 Southwest	DEN 15:55	TUL 18:39	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 1937 United Flight history →	DEN 17:37	TUL 20:27	43%	17%	0.8%	80%worse than usual
WN 2758 Southwest	DEN 19:35	TUL 22:19	45%	13%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON