Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1817 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–52%.

Safest bet that day WN 1817 DEN 08:30 → TUS 09:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1762 DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1817 Southwest	DEN 08:30	TUS 09:38	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	22%	6%	0.6%	86%
OO 5873 SkyWest	DEN 15:44	TUS 16:58	33%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 1823 Southwest	DEN 22:01	TUS 22:58	37%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest	DEN 17:20	TUS 18:26	52%	14%	0.7%	no record
UA 1762 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	TUS 20:12	52%	17%	0.7%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON