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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2420 at 09:42, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2420 United Flight history → DEN 09:42 TVC 14:20 20% 4% 0.6% 91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 24m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 4h 54m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 14:59 → DTW 19:49DL 1648 3h 10m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 7h 09m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771 1h 18m Chicago ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 5h 23m 91% 63%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023 2h 40m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 6h 36m 92% 36%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 16:48 → ORD 20:19UA 1131 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 4h 49m 58% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON