Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: G4 1440 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–39%.

Safest bet that day G4 1440 DEN 08:26 → TYS 13:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2473 DEN 17:25 → TYS 22:19 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G4 1440 Allegiant	DEN 08:26	TYS 13:16	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1241 United	DEN 11:03	TYS 16:05	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1709 Southwest	DEN 10:50	TYS 15:40	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2473 United Flight history →	DEN 17:25	TYS 22:19	39%	13%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON