Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5267 at 09:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 5267 DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 1351 DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5267 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	XNA 12:47	16%	6%	0.7%	87%
UA 5641 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	XNA 16:25	23%	9%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
OO 4805 SkyWest	DEN 21:05	XNA 00:16	26%	14%	0.9%	no record
F9 4344 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:49	XNA 19:01	28%	13%	0.8%	85%worse than usual
UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	44%	16%	0.7%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON