Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3535 at 08:49 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 3535 DFW 08:49 → ABQ 09:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1321 DFW 20:31 → ABQ 21:33 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:49	ABQ 09:42	15%	3%	1.2%	80%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:00	ABQ 13:53	19%	4%	1.5%	76%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:41	ABQ 11:34	19%	3%	1.3%	83%
AA 3053 American	DFW 14:21	ABQ 15:15	34%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 16:00	ABQ 16:54	34%	12%	1.2%	64%
AA 2564 American Flight history →	DFW 22:56	ABQ 23:49	42%	12%	1.3%	60%
AA 2698 American Flight history →	DFW 18:22	ABQ 19:16	45%	15%	1.4%	57%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	DFW 20:31	ABQ 21:33	46%	14%	1.3%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON