tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Albany on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 01m Detroit DTW 10:05 → ALB 11:47DL 5522 · flown by Endeavor 5h 26m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 13:19 → ALB 15:30AA 1075 7h 30m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 13:05 → ALB 14:29AA 6028 · flown by Piedmont 6h 01m 90% 77%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 14m Dulles IAD 12:40 → ALB 14:13UA 4317 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 53m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → ALB 17:36DL 1241 6h 30m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 2h 07m Chicago ORD 11:57 → ALB 14:57UA 2792 6h 49m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59DL 2584 6h 36m 100% 73%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 2h 40m Philadelphia PHL 16:40 → ALB 18:04AA 6024 · flown by Piedmont 7h 26m 93% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:17 → PHL 20:52AA 1945 58m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → ALB 23:23AA 5877 · flown by Piedmont 6h 06m 58% 45%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285 57m Chicago ORD 14:49 → ALB 17:52AA 4240 · flown by Envoy 5h 27m 67% 44%
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 46m Dulles IAD 22:10 → ALB 23:47UA 4321 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 32m 38% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON