Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3920 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–51%.

Safest bet that day AA 3920 DFW 08:27 → AMA 09:49 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2265 DFW 22:16 → AMA 23:32 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:27	AMA 09:49	10%	3%	1.8%	91%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:22	AMA 14:46	18%	4%	2.1%	86%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:35	AMA 15:59	18%	4%	2.1%	84%
AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:40	AMA 00:07	22%	5%	2.4%	67%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:17	AMA 18:40	22%	6%	2.4%	80%
AA 2426 American	DFW 20:17	AMA 21:46	45%	12%	2.5%	no record
AA 2265 American	DFW 22:16	AMA 23:32	51%	13%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON