Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 399 American Flight history →	DFW 15:08	ANC 19:09	28%	9%	0.7%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804	1h 49m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922	9h 47m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	DFW 14:05 → PDX 16:05AS 303	1h 44m Portland	PDX 17:49 → ANC 20:37AS 1455	9h 32m	89%	72%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → ANC 14:34AS 1333	11h 10m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:00 → SEA 11:20AS 365	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381	10h 32m	97%	67%
United Details →	DFW 10:31 → ORD 13:01UA 1634	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461	11h 34m	95%	50%
American Details →	DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375	12h 44m	96%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 17:03 → ANC 21:09AA 375	10h 59m	67%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON