tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 40–45% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 569 American Flight history → DFW 12:49 AVL 16:17 40% 9% 1.7% 74%worse than usual
AA 3267 American DFW 19:54 AVL 23:27 45% 12% 2.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → AVL 11:07DL 3059 4h 47m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 13:13 → AVL 14:19AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 6h 19m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:00 → LGA 10:29AA 2925 2h 41m New York LGA 13:10 → AVL 15:20AA 4418 · flown by Republic 8h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:39 → AVL 14:36UA 1992 7h 51m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → AVL 13:25DL 1182 5h 40m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618 1h 02m Washington DCA 10:05 → AVL 11:45AA 5213 · flown by PSA 5h 43m 92% 73%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116 6h 23m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 16:11 → AVL 17:19DL 3101 6h 13m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 10:31 → ORD 13:01UA 1634 54m Chicago ORD 13:55 → AVL 16:58UA 4434 · flown by GoJet 5h 27m 74% 49%
DeltaDetails → DFW 18:32 → ATL 21:59DL 374 47m Atlanta ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116 4h 14m 60% 44%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:17 → PHL 20:52AA 1945 58m Philadelphia PHL 21:50 → AVL 23:58AA 6093 · flown by Piedmont 6h 41m 58% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON