Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3361 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3361 DFW 07:15 → BHM 09:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5610 DFW 14:35 → BHM 16:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3361 Envoy	DFW 07:15	BHM 09:07	12%	4%	1.5%	no record
AA 3884 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:44	BHM 14:40	18%	4%	1.4%	81%
MQ 3399 Envoy	DFW 21:30	BHM 23:25	21%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 5530 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 09:39	BHM 11:36	22%	9%	1.5%	61%
MQ 3359 Envoy	DFW 17:13	BHM 19:13	25%	8%	1.7%	no record
AA 3433 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:50	BHM 21:45	25%	7%	1.4%	75%
AA 5610 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:35	BHM 16:32	28%	12%	1.3%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON