tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4095 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 10:41 BIL 12:38 16% 3% 1.4% 84%
AA 3937 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DFW 21:15 BIL 23:13 27% 5% 2.8% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:46 → ORD 08:05AA 2999 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:39 → BIL 11:44AA 3498 · flown by Envoy 6h 58m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 1h 02m Denver DEN 07:55 → BIL 09:36UA 4762 · flown by SkyWest 4h 51m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 16:25 → BIL 17:52DL 3828 · flown by SkyWest 6h 22m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543 1h 24m Seattle SEA 10:09 → BIL 13:05AS 2054 · flown by Horizon 7h 41m 93% 74%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → BIL 17:19UA 5498 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 2h 50m Denver DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 89% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 1h 20m Denver DEN 19:40 → BIL 21:17UA 1417 5h 27m 66% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON