Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1083 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1083 DFW 07:37 → BNA 09:37 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1500 DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1083 American	DFW 07:37	BNA 09:37	17%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:20	BNA 09:17	18%	5%	1.1%	82%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 10:22	BNA 12:15	26%	7%	1.0%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:46	BNA 14:45	34%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1181 American	DFW 14:15	BNA 16:21	36%	11%	1.0%	no record
F9 3052 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:16	BNA 18:18	39%	16%	2.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 3230 American Flight history →	DFW 22:51	BNA 00:51	40%	12%	1.2%	57%
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	42%	15%	1.2%	61%
AA 1199 American	DFW 16:44	BNA 18:41	42%	13%	1.1%	no record
AA 2244 American Flight history →	DFW 15:23	BNA 17:20	42%	11%	1.0%	65%
AA 2979 American Flight history →	DFW 22:42	BNA 00:39	42%	13%	1.2%	57%
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	BNA 22:10	43%	13%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON