tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2019 at 10:33 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2019 American DFW 10:33 BOI 12:52 25% 6% 1.0% no record
AA 1104 American Flight history → DFW 21:05 BOI 23:21 41% 9% 1.2% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 10:31 → BOI 12:53DL 874 8h 33m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46DL 804 3h 44m Seattle SEA 12:30 → BOI 15:11DL 3959 · flown by SkyWest 9h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:39 → BOI 13:44DL 2982 7h 49m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:09 → LAX 08:20DL 439 3h 24m Los Angeles LAX 11:44 → BOI 14:46DL 3773 · flown by SkyWest 8h 37m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:02 → BOI 12:17DL 2095 5h 32m 93% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 44m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → BOI 13:41AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 7h 33m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108 3h 55m Phoenix PHX 18:52 → BOI 22:11AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest 8h 41m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:46 → ORD 08:05AA 2999 3h 38m Chicago ORD 11:43 → BOI 14:51AA 2353 10h 05m 100% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520 49m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → BOI 13:41AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 5h 46m 63% 52%
UnitedDetails → DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248 1h 00m Denver DEN 15:55 → BOI 17:56UA 2602 5h 12m 71% 47%
UnitedDetails → DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303 1h 08m Denver DEN 19:28 → BOI 21:29UA 2014 5h 39m 58% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON