Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2351 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 2351 DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2567 DFW 19:14 → BOS 23:48 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2351 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:15	BOS 12:08	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	DFW 07:12	BOS 11:54	16%	5%	1.0%	81%
AA 1206 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	BOS 13:37	18%	5%	1.0%	82%
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	DFW 11:20	BOS 16:14	21%	6%	0.8%	68%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 09:47	BOS 14:28	26%	8%	1.1%	67%
DL 1809 Delta	DFW 17:12	BOS 21:48	36%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1401 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	BOS 17:11	36%	10%	1.0%	44%
AA 1268 American	DFW 18:42	BOS 23:21	41%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2306 American Flight history →	DFW 14:50	BOS 19:31	42%	13%	1.0%	55%
AA 410 American	DFW 16:44	BOS 21:49	42%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 1366 American Flight history →	DFW 19:33	BOS 00:12	45%	13%	1.1%	64%
AA 2567 American Flight history →	DFW 19:14	BOS 23:48	47%	14%	1.1%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON