Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1724 at 12:06 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 12:06	BUF 16:16	35%	8%	1.1%	76%worse than usual
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	48%	14%	1.3%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 11:43 → LGA 16:15AA 2327	3h 14m New York	LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07AA 4521 · flown by Republic	8h 24m	96%	79%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442	6h 54m	98%	77%
United Details →	DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639	1h 33m Dulles	IAD 12:59 → BUF 14:25UA 4335 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 05m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 08m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 35m	99%	73%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	3h 36m New York	LGA 15:49 → BUF 17:14AA 843	8h 34m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	6h 36m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:35 → LGA 15:10DL 873	1h 05m New York	LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 09m	83%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 11:25 → ORD 13:52AA 1285	46m Chicago	ORD 14:38 → BUF 17:18AA 3013	4h 53m	53%	28%
United Details →	DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:57UA 2160	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:57 → BUF 20:35UA 1335	5h 20m	60%	27%
American Details →	DFW 16:36 → ORD 18:54AA 1290	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → BUF 22:47AA 564	5h 11m	49%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON