Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4066 at 13:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4066 DFW 13:25 → CAE 17:10 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3260 DFW 18:48 → CAE 22:32 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4066 Envoy	DFW 13:25	CAE 17:10	18%	5%	1.6%	no record
MQ 4315 Envoy	DFW 15:42	CAE 19:27	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 5437 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 10:22	CAE 13:57	23%	7%	1.8%	81%
AA 3260 American	DFW 18:48	CAE 22:32	41%	15%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON