Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3676 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3676 DFW 09:53 → CID 12:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3798 DFW 19:14 → CID 21:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3676 Envoy	DFW 09:53	CID 12:00	14%	3%	2.7%	no record
MQ 3562 Envoy	DFW 11:01	CID 13:08	17%	5%	3.2%	no record
AA 4318 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:03	CID 17:10	21%	5%	3.8%	90%worse than usual
AA 4235 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:20	CID 23:37	21%	5%	2.2%	87%
AA 3798 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:14	CID 21:21	28%	6%	5.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON