Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1172 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 1172 DFW 07:03 → CLE 10:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 560 DFW 19:55 → CLE 23:33 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1172 American Flight history →	DFW 07:03	CLE 10:42	17%	5%	0.9%	100%worse than usual
AA 2336 American Flight history →	DFW 10:47	CLE 14:26	26%	7%	1.0%	63%
AA 1230 American	DFW 15:08	CLE 19:00	40%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1484 American Flight history →	DFW 17:39	CLE 21:34	47%	14%	1.0%	67%worse than usual
AA 560 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	CLE 23:33	49%	14%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON