Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1091 at 04:54 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 1091 DFW 04:54 → CLT 08:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 460 DFW 20:19 → CLT 23:53 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1091 American Flight history →	DFW 04:54	CLT 08:29	10%	4%	2.0%	96%
AA 317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	CLT 10:44	13%	4%	1.3%	86%
F9 3110 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:25	CLT 10:04	17%	7%	2.4%	78%
AA 2168 American	DFW 08:22	CLT 11:57	17%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2493 American	DFW 09:58	CLT 13:33	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 1696 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	CLT 15:36	25%	6%	1.2%	72%
AA 3227 American	DFW 14:33	CLT 18:14	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2013 American	DFW 15:58	CLT 19:33	35%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 3002 American	DFW 18:47	CLT 22:21	39%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 1703 American Flight history →	DFW 17:54	CLT 21:44	39%	12%	1.2%	67%
AA 460 American	DFW 20:19	CLT 23:53	41%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON