Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1279 at 07:18 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 1279 DFW 07:18 → CMH 10:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 641 DFW 19:50 → CMH 23:20 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1279 American Flight history →	DFW 07:18	CMH 10:50	14%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 1492 American Flight history →	DFW 10:11	CMH 13:50	18%	5%	1.0%	73%
AA 2337 American Flight history →	DFW 15:34	CMH 19:07	38%	9%	1.0%	62%
AA 1348 American	DFW 17:37	CMH 21:19	40%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 641 American Flight history →	DFW 19:50	CMH 23:20	50%	11%	1.1%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON