Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1552 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1552 DFW 08:22 → COS 09:19 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 790 DFW 21:25 → COS 22:23 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1552 American Flight history →	DFW 08:22	COS 09:19	17%	7%	1.1%	71%
AA 6390 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 11:43	COS 12:52	22%	9%	1.1%	89%worse than usual
OO 6234 SkyWest	DFW 16:00	COS 17:05	29%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 1170 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	COS 14:42	30%	11%	1.3%	70%
AA 6267 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:27	COS 18:34	40%	12%	1.1%	65%
AA 790 American Flight history →	DFW 21:25	COS 22:23	43%	13%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON