Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3416 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3416 DFW 09:40 → COU 11:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4282 DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3416 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:40	COU 11:23	15%	5%	2.5%	88%
MQ 3402 Envoy	DFW 16:09	COU 17:52	21%	8%	2.1%	no record
MQ 3928 Envoy	DFW 17:29	COU 19:12	26%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 4282 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:33	COU 22:20	28%	8%	1.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON