Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2610 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2610 DFW 07:38 → CVG 10:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1266 DFW 20:09 → CVG 23:42 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2610 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	CVG 10:56	16%	5%	1.0%	87%
AA 3305 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	CVG 14:13	22%	7%	1.0%	81%
AA 2919 American Flight history →	DFW 14:58	CVG 18:16	38%	12%	1.0%	57%
AA 799 American Flight history →	DFW 17:35	CVG 21:04	40%	12%	1.2%	51%
AA 1266 American Flight history →	DFW 20:09	CVG 23:42	42%	12%	1.2%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON