Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5114 at 09:46 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5114 DFW 09:46 → DAY 13:11 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5245 DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5114 PSA	DFW 09:46	DAY 13:11	15%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 5517 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 14:09	DAY 17:35	23%	8%	1.6%	92%worse than usual
AA 5609 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 17:16	DAY 20:48	29%	11%	1.4%	64%
AA 5245 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:13	DAY 23:44	31%	10%	1.5%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON