Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 773 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–58%.

Safest bet that day UA 773 DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2235 DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 773 United Flight history →	DFW 05:45	DEN 06:53	6%	3%	1.0%	95%
UA 1686 United	DFW 09:03	DEN 11:11	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
F9 2549 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 06:55	DEN 08:06	17%	5%	1.4%	85%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	DEN 08:08	18%	5%	1.2%	81%
UA 567 United	DFW 08:55	DEN 10:01	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	DEN 09:42	23%	6%	1.1%	77%
F9 1323 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 10:40	DEN 11:52	24%	6%	1.4%	77%
UA 2049 United Flight history →	DFW 11:35	DEN 12:45	25%	7%	0.9%	84%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DFW 10:41	DEN 11:46	27%	7%	1.1%	73%
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:44	DEN 14:55	30%	10%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
AA 1462 American	DFW 12:00	DEN 13:05	31%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	35%	9%	1.2%	77%worse than usual
F9 4463 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:27	DEN 21:40	41%	11%	1.6%	66%
AA 1722 American	DFW 22:54	DEN 00:07	42%	9%	1.5%	no record
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:54	DEN 16:05	44%	14%	1.6%	76%worse than usual
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:50	DEN 18:20	45%	17%	1.1%	59%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	DEN 15:30	46%	14%	1.3%	62%
UA 309 United	DFW 18:18	DEN 19:26	48%	15%	1.1%	no record
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	DEN 17:19	52%	15%	1.6%	49%
AA 577 American Flight history →	DFW 20:29	DEN 21:32	54%	12%	1.4%	50%
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	DEN 19:41	58%	15%	1.6%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON