Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3769 at 12:23 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–50%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3769 DFW 12:23 → ELP 13:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1514 DFW 20:23 → ELP 21:15 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3769 Envoy	DFW 12:23	ELP 13:15	17%	3%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3981 Envoy	DFW 16:06	ELP 16:58	22%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	DFW 08:49	ELP 09:40	22%	7%	1.5%	73%
AA 1658 American	DFW 10:59	ELP 11:49	25%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 1681 American Flight history →	DFW 14:50	ELP 15:43	36%	11%	1.7%	57%
AA 555 American Flight history →	DFW 18:14	ELP 19:07	46%	14%	2.2%	59%
AA 1607 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	ELP 23:46	47%	13%	1.6%	54%
AA 1514 American	DFW 20:23	ELP 21:15	50%	15%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON