Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3592 at 11:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3592 DFW 11:30 → GJT 12:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OO 6222 DFW 20:43 → GJT 22:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3592 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:30	GJT 12:59	16%	3%	1.1%	84%
MQ 4001 Envoy	DFW 15:36	GJT 17:04	20%	4%	1.2%	no record
OO 6235 SkyWest	DFW 08:55	GJT 10:16	20%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 6222 SkyWest	DFW 20:43	GJT 22:06	31%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON