tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5 American Flight history → DFW 11:30 HNL 14:26 28% 10% 0.9% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 26m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 13h 47m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:50 → ATL 09:00DL 401 50m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 30m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:45 → LAX 14:58DL 521 3h 39m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 12h 37m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 34m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474 2h 41m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693 12h 01m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:57 → SFO 08:44UA 790 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 11h 23m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276 47m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 48m 83% 72%
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260 3h 48m Houston IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253 13h 16m 97% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:13 → LAX 08:28AA 3317 52m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → HNL 12:28AA 31 10h 15m 71% 57%
UnitedDetails → DFW 15:37 → SFO 17:46UA 2413 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 11h 06m 71% 55%
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:35 → LAX 16:52AA 1669 1h 02m Los Angeles LAX 17:54 → HNL 20:41AA 297 10h 06m 67% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON