Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4036 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4036 DFW 07:40 → HOU 09:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3391 DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:49 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:40	HOU 09:01	15%	3%	2.3%	88%
OO 6382 SkyWest	DFW 09:41	HOU 11:00	21%	8%	2.0%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	DFW 12:02	HOU 13:21	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3864 Envoy	DFW 22:44	HOU 00:10	28%	5%	1.5%	no record
OO 6252 SkyWest	DFW 16:41	HOU 18:05	31%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:28	HOU 19:49	32%	7%	1.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON