Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2639 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 2639 DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2254 DFW 20:53 → IAD 00:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2639 United Flight history →	DFW 07:20	IAD 11:26	9%	3%	1.0%	90%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:26	IAD 11:28	16%	6%	1.0%	84%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:09	IAD 14:03	20%	5%	1.0%	90%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	21%	5%	1.1%	86%
AA 1863 American Flight history →	DFW 14:51	IAD 19:02	35%	8%	1.1%	70%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	35%	10%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 2254 American	DFW 20:53	IAD 00:49	41%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON