Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4032 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4032 DFW 07:41 → ICT 09:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6236 DFW 17:42 → ICT 19:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:41	ICT 09:09	14%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	16%	3%	1.4%	83%
OH 5372 PSA	DFW 12:13	ICT 13:44	26%	9%	1.8%	no record
MQ 3526 Envoy	DFW 21:35	ICT 23:06	26%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:07	ICT 18:30	29%	7%	1.4%	67%
OO 6218 SkyWest	DFW 20:35	ICT 22:01	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 6236 SkyWest	DFW 17:42	ICT 19:08	32%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON