Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6468 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 6468 DFW 09:35 → IDA 11:35 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 6467 DFW 20:05 → IDA 22:11 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6468 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 09:35	IDA 11:35	23%	9%	2.0%	75%
OO 6223 SkyWest	DFW 11:24	IDA 13:24	26%	9%	1.9%	no record
AA 6467 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 20:05	IDA 22:11	38%	10%	3.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON