tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 4016 at 11:54 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 4016 Envoy DFW 11:54 ILM 15:43 18% 5% 1.5% no record
MQ 3355 Envoy DFW 19:10 ILM 23:16 32% 9% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731 7h 23m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 6h 57m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623 2h 31m Washington DCA 13:30 → ILM 15:08AA 5313 · flown by PSA 7h 06m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:23 → ATL 19:33DL 921 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070 5h 33m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 12:54 → ILM 14:02AA 2413 6h 02m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415 1h 19m Philadelphia PHL 13:11 → ILM 14:56AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont 6h 26m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:54 → CLT 08:29AA 1091 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → ILM 12:14AA 5416 · flown by PSA 6h 20m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:25 → MIA 18:24AA 1167 3h 34m Miami MIA 21:58 → ILM 23:59AA 3897 · flown by Envoy 8h 34m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961 53m Atlanta ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292 4h 46m 73% 57%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 1h 23m Miami MIA 21:58 → ILM 23:59AA 3897 · flown by Envoy 6h 29m 72% 54%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703 1h 02m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → ILM 23:54AA 2831 5h 00m 63% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON