Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1923 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1923 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	JAC 11:17	27%	6%	1.1%	73%
AA 1883 American Flight history →	DFW 13:12	JAC 14:59	38%	12%	1.6%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:05 → JAC 09:46UA 5730 · flown by SkyWest	5h 01m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282	5h 30m	93%	79%
American Details →	DFW 07:13 → LAX 08:28AA 3317	1h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 09:55 → JAC 13:18AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:17 → ATL 15:35DL 961	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315	8h 47m	98%	72%
American Details →	DFW 05:46 → ORD 08:05AA 2999	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 09:43 → JAC 12:03AA 1898	7h 17m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	1h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:38 → JAC 16:45DL 509	5h 15m	87%	69%
Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	2h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 18:30 → JAC 19:37DL 4025 · flown by SkyWest	6h 06m	94%	66%
United Details →	DFW 11:35 → DEN 12:45UA 2049	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537	4h 50m	81%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	48m Denver	DEN 19:08 → JAC 20:44UA 785	4h 54m	45%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON