Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1061 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 DFW 07:47 → JAX 11:21 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 679 DFW 18:42 → JAX 22:14 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:47	JAX 11:21	13%	5%	1.0%	89%
AA 2329 American	DFW 09:28	JAX 13:01	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 1472 American	DFW 12:46	JAX 16:20	31%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:44	JAX 19:22	32%	12%	1.1%	no record
AA 2449 American Flight history →	DFW 17:45	JAX 21:16	41%	13%	1.2%	58%
AA 679 American Flight history →	DFW 18:42	JAX 22:14	42%	14%	1.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON