Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 454 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 454 DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1248 DFW 18:31 → JFK 23:05 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 454 Delta Flight history →	DFW 08:15	JFK 12:59	10%	4%	1.4%	90%
AA 1766 American Flight history →	DFW 09:50	JFK 14:34	24%	6%	0.9%	75%
AA 1058 American	DFW 13:11	JFK 17:47	30%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 578 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	JFK 21:00	40%	14%	0.9%	57%
AA 1248 American Flight history →	DFW 18:31	JFK 23:05	45%	13%	1.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON