Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: F9 1649 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–54%.

Safest bet that day F9 1649 DFW 06:25 → LAS 07:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1797 DFW 20:54 → LAS 21:45 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1649 Frontier	DFW 06:25	LAS 07:21	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 1969 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	LAS 07:51	19%	4%	1.3%	83%
F9 1961 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 01:03	LAS 02:06	20%	8%	2.0%	78%
F9 1051 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:50	LAS 09:46	23%	6%	1.3%	86%
AA 1550 American	DFW 08:49	LAS 09:38	25%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 1494 American Flight history →	DFW 09:37	LAS 10:27	31%	7%	1.2%	71%
AA 1482 American Flight history →	DFW 10:32	LAS 11:21	32%	7%	1.1%	78%worse than usual
AA 777 American Flight history →	DFW 12:18	LAS 13:06	40%	10%	1.1%	75%worse than usual
AA 2376 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	LAS 14:28	43%	13%	1.2%	54%
AA 1573 American	DFW 15:38	LAS 16:35	46%	14%	1.2%	no record
F9 1647 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAS 21:31	48%	18%	1.3%	60%
AA 2371 American Flight history →	DFW 21:18	LAS 22:23	49%	15%	1.3%	41%
AA 884 American Flight history →	DFW 17:50	LAS 18:42	50%	18%	1.2%	56%
AA 2864 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	LAS 17:48	51%	17%	1.1%	61%worse than usual
AA 624 American Flight history →	DFW 22:44	LAS 23:44	52%	13%	1.4%	65%worse than usual
AA 265 American	DFW 18:10	LAS 19:02	54%	16%	1.3%	no record
AA 1771 American Flight history →	DFW 19:22	LAS 20:11	54%	19%	1.2%	59%worse than usual
AA 1797 American Flight history →	DFW 20:54	LAS 21:45	54%	16%	1.3%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON