Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 439 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–51%.

Safest bet that day DL 439 DFW 07:09 → LAX 08:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2931 DFW 20:26 → LAX 21:43 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 439 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:09	LAX 08:20	13%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 3303 American	DFW 06:26	LAX 07:44	16%	5%	1.2%	no record
F9 2273 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:35	LAX 08:54	18%	5%	1.2%	85%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	DFW 13:45	LAX 14:58	20%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	DFW 07:13	LAX 08:28	20%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 1996 American Flight history →	DFW 08:35	LAX 09:49	24%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 3181 American	DFW 10:58	LAX 12:18	24%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 3273 American Flight history →	DFW 09:26	LAX 10:41	27%	5%	1.1%	69%
F9 4963 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:01	LAX 15:26	27%	9%	1.0%	76%
AA 1275 American	DFW 13:02	LAX 14:18	30%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 442 American Flight history →	DFW 11:46	LAX 13:04	31%	6%	1.0%	75%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	DFW 20:35	LAX 21:50	34%	6%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
AA 1669 American Flight history →	DFW 15:35	LAX 16:52	35%	9%	1.1%	52%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	LAX 17:54	37%	11%	1.1%	61%
F9 3211 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:09	LAX 23:33	39%	10%	1.0%	77%worse than usual
AA 2038 American	DFW 22:43	LAX 00:04	42%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 2043 American	DFW 18:37	LAX 19:55	44%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 2125 American	DFW 17:38	LAX 18:57	45%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2931 American	DFW 20:26	LAX 21:43	51%	10%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON