Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3850 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3850 DFW 07:11 → LIT 08:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest MQ 3519 DFW 19:02 → LIT 20:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3850 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:11	LIT 08:33	11%	2%	1.0%	89%
AA 3898 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:36	LIT 12:59	17%	3%	1.0%	82%
AA 4309 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:52	LIT 17:19	19%	4%	1.0%	77%
OH 5599 PSA	DFW 09:46	LIT 11:13	21%	8%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3505 Envoy	DFW 17:05	LIT 18:33	23%	5%	1.2%	no record
OH 5615 PSA	DFW 14:05	LIT 15:32	24%	10%	1.6%	no record
AA 4079 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 21:11	LIT 22:35	26%	4%	1.0%	77%
MQ 3519 Envoy	DFW 19:02	LIT 20:24	28%	6%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON